El Niño is the name we give to the warm phase of a Pacific climate pattern known as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). It happens when the surface water of the equatorial Pacific warms above normal for several months in a row, and that extra heat reshuffles winds and rainfall across half the planet.
A Super El Niño isn't a separate category. It's the point where that warming spikes. NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) classifies an event as very strong when the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, in the central Pacific, exceeds 35°F above average.
Before this episode, only three events had reached that intensity since reliable measurements began: 1982 and 1983, 1997 and 1998, and 2015 and 2016.
In other words: the Pacific Ocean warms up more than usual, and that extra heat changes where it rains and where it doesn't across the entire world. When the warming is large, we call it a Super El Niño. When it's large and also coincides with a planet that's already warmer because of climate change, the effects hit harder than we're used to seeing.
It doesn't hit everywhere the same way, but almost no country in the LATAM region is spared.
In Mexico, the north (Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas) is heading toward more severe drought, while the center and south could see below-normal rain during the summer. The Pacific coast is on alert for more intense hurricanes, and toward the end of the year a rainier-than-usual winter could arrive. Researchers at UNAM (the National Autonomous University of Mexico) calculate that each severe drought costs the country close to US$27 billion.
In Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua the hit comes through the Central American Dry Corridor: more heat, less rain and more pressure on crops that already depend on a fragile climate. Costa Rica and Panama share that same heat-and-drought pattern, and in Panama there's the added risk of low water levels that have already limited ship transit through the Canal.
In the Caribbean, Cuba is a clear case: it enters this episode with water reserves below 40% and more than 60% of its territory already affected by drought.
In Colombia and northern Venezuela the same pattern dominates: heat and drought, with heavy pressure on water and energy. Colombia relies on hydropower for a large share of its energy mix, and its main reservoirs were already operating below 60% of capacity in mid-2026.
Bolivia faces a risk of its own: severe drought, especially in its Amazon region, with more than 70% of its municipalities already showing a rainfall deficit before the phenomenon had even fully developed, and a higher risk of wildfires.
The pattern reverses along the Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru, where El Niño tends to bring intense rain and flooding, known as coastal El Niño. Peru is already projecting above-normal temperatures between June and October 2026, with its alert in effect through 2027.
In central Chile, which is also entering this episode after years of megadrought, in northern Argentina (Corrientes and Misiones), in Paraguay and in Uruguay the risk is also heavier rain and river flooding. Brazil lives both sides of the phenomenon at once: the north and the Amazon heading toward drought and wildfire risk, and the south heading toward heavier rain and flooding.
Less rain means less hydropower generation and more thermal plants running, which cost more. Rain in the wrong place means cut-off routes and stalled containers. A smaller harvest means less raw material and contracts that can't be fulfilled on the agreed terms.
Bank of America projects that Brazil's corn harvest could fall by around 10% year-over-year in the 2026-2027 agricultural cycle. It wouldn't be the first time: in the 2015-2016 episode the drop was 21%, and in 2023-2024, 12%. The International Labour Organization has already warned that this episode could directly affect employment and income for millions of people in the region, with pressure on agriculture, fishing, energy and logistics.
If your operation depends on agricultural suppliers, hydroelectric power, or logistics routes in risk zones, now is the time to act, not to wait until the phenomenon peaks.
Measuring your carbon footprint is no longer enough if you don't know how exposed your operation is to climate. At Bono we believe every source of climate risk needs a concrete mitigation pathway, not just a paragraph in the annual report: mapping which plants, suppliers or routes depend on conditions that El Niño can alter, and putting a number on the cost if they fail.
Every quarter that goes by without quantifying exposure to El Niño is a quarter spent negotiating contracts, rates and suppliers with less information than already exists today. NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) gave months of advance notice. The question isn't whether El Niño will hit. It's whether your company will see it coming in its P&L, or in the news.
If you want to know how exposed your operation is and where to start, book 15 minutes with Bono.